Far Eastern Mathematical Journal

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Transition phenomena in mathematical theory of epidemic

G. Sh. Tsitsiashvili, M. A. Osipova

2001, issue 1, Ñ. 58–67

A generalization of the threshold Whittle's theorem of mathematical epidemic theory is made for a case when a number of susceptibles infected by an end of an epidemic is near its extremal values. It allows to give qualitative long-term prognosis of epidemic's damage. An algorythm of fast and precise calculation of a distribution of epidemic's damage for small meanings which correspond to short-term prognosis is constructed.


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